The U Institute Behind Utah’s Biggest Decisions

On the night of March 11, 2020, Rudy Gobert of the Utah Jazz tested positive for COVID-19. Within hours, the NBA suspended its season, and the pandemic snapped into focus for millions of Americans.

Thirteen days later—while much of the country was still scrambling to understand what came next—Utah released an economic recovery plan.

Natalie Gochnour BS’84 MS’88, director of the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute at the University of Utah, remembers the call that set the work in motion. Clark Ivory BA’88, a prominent home builder and civic leader, didn’t waste time.

“Natalie, we just need a plan,” he told her. “It doesn’t have to be perfect. We just need a plan.”

With a small team of economists and policy analysts, including representatives from the governor’s office, the Utah Economic Response Task Force delivered Utah Leads Together, a data-driven framework. Over the course of the pandemic, Utah ranked second in the nation in job growth and third-lowest in the nation in death rates, a health and economic success story among states.

Much of the data and modeling behind the plan came from the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute, which had been built for exactly this kind of moment. “Policymakers were hungry for this,” Gochnour says. “Our role wasn’t to make decisions. It was to provide the data and the framework so leaders could.”

The Founding Story

Before the Gardner Institute’s founding, when Utah’s civic and business leaders sat down to make a big decision—about housing, transportation, water, growth—the same problem kept derailing them: no shared, trusted source of data to build from. “We had smart people in the room, but not a shared set of facts,” says Ivory, who was instrumental in launching the Gardner Institute. “Everyone came in with their own numbers. That makes it really hard to plan for the long term.”

The idea for a solution took shape in 2013, when a small group of university and community leaders traveled to the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research conference. They watched the Hoover Institution guide California through a difficult economic moment—sharing data and expertise to inform decisions. “We said to each other, this is the kind of thing we need,” Ivory recalls.

“We weren’t trying to build an advocacy shop,” he adds. “We wanted a place people across the spectrum could trust—a place that did the work once, did it well, and gave decision-makers the data they needed to make informed choices.”

They also recognized that the U already had much of what they needed. Top demographers, economists, and policy analysts were distributed across campus—talented but siloed, each tucked into their own department. Part of the founding vision was pulling them together, betting that proximity would unlock something greater than the sum of its parts.

In 2015, that idea became the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute, housed in the David Eccles School of Business at the U and named for Kem Gardner BA’67 JD’70, a Wyoming-raised real estate developer who became a principal financial supporter and champion. “There are a lot of needs around us, and Utah has big decisions ahead,” Gardner said at the time. “I love this state and want to make a difference. I look at the Gardner Institute and know it will help our community and business leaders make better-informed decisions.”

As the lead entity for the U.S. Census Bureau in Utah, the Gardner Institute now produces Utah’s official population estimates and projections—50-year forecasts of residents, households, and economic indicators that serve as the foundation for every major infrastructure decision in the state.

Housing as a Test Case

Over the past decade, the Gardner Institute has tackled everything from transportation to education. It doesn’t just study growth; it defines the baseline numbers that determine where schools get built, which roads get widened, and how water gets allocated. The housing crisis shows the model at full strength.

In 2018, the Gardner Institute released the first in a series of housing studies that showed what many Utahns already felt—they were being priced out. Between 2011 and 2017, the state issued 50,833 fewer housing permits than new households formed. Apartment vacancy rates hit historic lows. Single-family homes sold in an average of 15 days.

The report gave policymakers a baseline. Later, Utah Gov. Spencer Cox launched the Utah First Homes program, aiming to build 35,000 starter homes by 2028. More than 20 bills followed—zoning reform, infrastructure investment, and other incentives for more compact development.

For organizations on the ground, the research became a tool. “The information helps us demonstrate the need and guides us where our services are needed,” says Sharlene Wilde, executive director of NeighborWorks Mountain Country Home Solutions.

The problem hasn’t been solved. By 2024, Utah ranked as the ninth most expensive housing market in the nation, with a median home price of $559,400. But its annual housing reports continue to frame the debate, providing metrics to track whether interventions are working.

The Trust Factor

What distinguishes the Gardner Institute isn’t just the data—it’s the delivery. Utah Lt. Gov. Deidre Henderson called it “shedding light, not heat” in a recent video celebrating the Gardner Institute’s 10th anniversary.

“The data they provide allows us to make much better decisions,” Henderson says.

The distinction matters. Report the number of children projected to be in a district, and leaders can plan for schools and infrastructure. Report that a region has the lowest per-pupil funding in the nation, and you’ve shifted the conversation from planning to politics, adds Gochnour.

“Some of the best public policy work comes from being a good listener,” Gochnour says. “We support decision-makers—we’re not here to hold anyone’s feet to the fire. We are here to light the fire.”

That philosophy has shaped how the Gardner Institute operates. The Thomas S. Monson Center (above) downtown—a historic mansion donated by The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints in 2014—has become a gathering place where business and community leaders, legislators, and advocates meet around shared facts. Monthly Newsmaker Breakfasts draw figures like Sen. Mike Lee and Gov. Cox. The institute also brings national scholars and authors—Arthur Brooks, Raj Chetty, Thomas Friedman, and others—to engage with Utah policymakers and students. The Utah Senate president has held the majority-party retreat there. Regularly scheduled meetings—the Utah Economic Council, the Utah Population Committee, and others—bring stakeholders together on neutral ground.

“Our role is to help policymakers see around corners,” Gochnour says. “They have to look at the whole decision tree and think through unintended consequences. We’re trying to give them the information that helps them get it right.”

Looking Ahead

Over the past decade, the Gardner Institute has documented what it calls the “Magnificent Seven”—the achievements that set Utah apart: economic dynamism, high household income with low poverty, upward mobility, widespread prosperity, a well-trained workforce, a young and growing population, and strong social cohesion.

Alongside them are the Gardner Institute’s “Troubling Seven”: housing affordability and homelessness, traffic congestion, third-grade reading proficiency, college completion, water and the future of the Great Salt Lake, energy supply, and behavioral health. These are where Utah’s rapid growth tests its limits—and the margin for error narrows.

“The hardest part,” Gochnour says, “is growing and changing as fast as we are without losing the things that made Utah great in the first place.” The Gardner Institute projects the state will add roughly 2 million more people over the next 40 years—about the current population of Idaho.

The 2034 Winter Olympic and Paralympic Games, returning to Salt Lake City, could serve as a forcing mechanism—a deadline that accelerates decisions on transportation, housing, and infrastructure that might otherwise stall. The Gardner Institute has already begun modeling scenarios, tracking what investments may make sense and at what cost.

Kurt Dirks, dean of the David Eccles School of Business, says the U’s commitment to the Gardner Institute has never been stronger. “Utah’s next decade will bring challenges, but even greater opportunity,” Dirks says. “The Gardner Institute provides policymakers and business leaders with the insights they need to drive a strong economy and a prosperous future.”

The choices Utah makes now—about housing density, water policy, school funding, and transit—will shape not just the state that hosts the Olympics, but the one that comes after, adds U President Taylor Randall HBA’90. “Good outcomes don’t happen by accident,” Randall says. “They happen when people are willing to face the data early—and act on it before the decisions get harder.” 

Seth Bracken is editor of Utah Magazine.