A study finds U.S. suicide moves in cycles

In the most comprehensive look yet at American suicide, researchers traced 122 years of data—and the long view revealed two patterns hidden in the short term. Suicide rates in the United States rise and fall in slow, decades-long cycles, likely shaped by broad social forces. Beneath that rhythm runs a steadier, more troubling trend: suicide among young people has climbed for more than half a century, reaching each new generation earlier in life.

The study, published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, drew on U.S. mortality records from 1900 to 2021, assembled into a new dataset by a team led by Nina de Lacy, a U physician-scientist and psychiatrist.

Overall rates rose and fell roughly every 10 to 25 years, peaking during periods of upheaval—industrialization in the 1910s, the Great Depression, the women’s rights movement of the 1970s.

“Very few causes of death behave like this,” de Lacy says. “Heart disease, cancer, and motor vehicle deaths generally decline when effective interventions are introduced. Suicide doesn’t follow that pattern. It fluctuates, reverses direction, and resists long-term reduction.”

The youth trend began much earlier than previously recognized, in the mid-to-late 1950s. Historically, suicide risk was highest among older adults; over time, that gap narrowed as older rates fell and rates among those under 35 rose. Today suicide is among the leading causes of death for people ages 10 to 34.

Additional contributors to the paper include Wai-yin Lam, Dept. of Psychiatry; Timothy Collins, School of Environment, Society, and Sustainability; Fernando A. Wilson, Matheson Center for Health Care Studies; and Ken R. Smith, Dept. of Family and Consumer Studies and Huntsman Cancer Institute.

If you or someone you know is struggling, the Suicide & Crisis Lifeline is available 24 hours a day by calling or texting 988.